V-Twin
I know some of us rode Harleys before Indians.  Some of us still ride both.  Others may have never ridden a Harley and have no intention of riding one.  Forget the brand and take a look at this graph.  Did you know Harley-Davidson’s net income plummeted this badly?  ...over the past 9 years! 😳🤔

DF3ADEA5-897D-41E2-9981-F3B6EE4C9D17.jpeg 

After all, the Motor Company (MoCo) has been around longer, continuously.  Their customer base is (at least, it was) massive too.  But if they are having this much trouble selling bikes, how are other companies doing?  

How is Indian performing?  Sure!  We hear X percentage increase in sales but it doesn’t paint the picture properly.  If I sold 5 bikes last year and sold 10 this year, my sales doubled or went up 100%... but I will still go broke.

If you are interested in reading the article, here is the source:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/01/30/harley-davidson-kansas-city-plant-motorcycle-sales-fall/1078008001/
Let's be kind to one another.
Melbourne, Victoria
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crash
There are some scary numbers in there.  If you were to make an investment on those figures would you choose a motorcycle manufacturer??
Ulysses #30673
IMRG #AU100394
Current: RoadMaster (ebony and ivory)
Highett Victoria Australia
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crash
also lots of conflicting reports surrounding the 2009 / 2010 period.

http://investor.harley-davidson.com/news-releases/news-release-details/harley-davidson-reports-2009-results
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/12/19/harley-davidsons-success-story-in-the-u-s/#3bb31e444ec1

The incredible downturn of profits over the 2009 / 2010 period could have been due to the cost of tooling up the Indian manufacturing plant - this would have required a significant investment at this point in time. 

Having said that, the numbers still have not bounced back to the 2006 level and there are predictions that this will never be experienced again.
so the numbers in the lead up would not be any cause for alarm for investors, a downturn in profit for the last financial year may also had some other influences (such as investment in electric vehicles for example) that would have impacted on the bottom line.  Without the full story these are just numbers that don't look particularly good.
Ulysses #30673
IMRG #AU100394
Current: RoadMaster (ebony and ivory)
Highett Victoria Australia
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Dr.Shifty
Another thing that surprises me is the constant rise from 2000 to 2006 where it more than doubled in six years. What was happening in those years to see such an increase? What started the rise and what made it suddenly stop?
Cheers, Kim.

From Woodrising (no, nobody else has heard of it either)
Rides a Springfield Dark Horse
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crash
Dr.Shifty wrote:
Another thing that surprises me is the constant rise from 2000 to 2006 where it more than doubled in six years. What was happening in those years to see such an increase? What started the rise and what made it suddenly stop?


Could be a whole bunch of factors - how they operate their depreciation schedules, if they had a significant manufacturing expense in the year prior they may have depreciated it on a sliding scale over a number of years, along with increased revenue from sales may have accounted for that.  These figures are after the accountant has got to the figures so there could be all sorts of creative accounting involved.
Ulysses #30673
IMRG #AU100394
Current: RoadMaster (ebony and ivory)
Highett Victoria Australia
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V-Twin
crash wrote:
The incredible downturn of profits over the 2009 / 2010 period could have been due to the cost of tooling up the Indian manufacturing plant
🤔 ???

It is incredible income growth leading up to 2006.  That’s for sure.  Maybe all the babyboomers went out and bought their last bike?  

Putting the latest figure aside, I guess about $50 million net income per annum is about as good as it is going to get.
Let's be kind to one another.
Melbourne, Victoria
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V-Twin
As we have speculated, declining sales of motorcycles are not just for HD.

75526054-55CF-4D4B-AA70-5EE7255734E7.jpeg 

“Road bike sales nationally reduced by 15.9%” when comparing 2016 vs 2017 figures! 😳  That is a huge drop!! 

Indian sales grew, so that’s good. 👍😀

How Victory sales grew, is beyond me!  😝



Source: Heavy Duty magazine, Issue # 157, page 14
Let's be kind to one another.
Melbourne, Victoria
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V-Twin
V-Twin wrote:
“Road bike sales nationally reduced by 15.9%” when comparing 2016 vs 2017 figures! 😳  That is a huge drop!!
It appears the falling sales of road motorcycles in Australia has stabilised (possibly).  It is early days and we only have the figures from the 1st quarter of 2018, compared with the same time the year before but it is looking promising - the fall was only 2.6%.

road-motorcycle-sales-1-qtr-2018.jpg 
(Source: http://www.mcnews.com.au/australian-motorcycle-sales-data-2018-q1-harley-hit/)


Harley-Davidson fell from 1st position to 2nd position.  In the January-March 2018 period, Honda out sold Harley by 264 motorcycles/scooters.  However, since Honda sells cheaper scooters, that unit sold may not mean that much.  It is good to see Indian has sold 227 bikes.  No doubt thanks to Scout and Bobbers. 

I will assume the Jan-March and Oct-Dec are the best quarters for motorcycle sales in Australia.  I would further assume, April-June and July-September are the weaker months.  So, I guess the 2nd quarter figures would be weaker across the board, and things will pick up again in the 4th quarter.  Based on my ‘back of the napkin’ calculation, Indian might be selling about 600 - 700 bikes per year.  What do you think?
Let's be kind to one another.
Melbourne, Victoria
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